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Wednesday 20 December 2017  17:00

PGK Christmas Lecture and Buffet Dinner

Organiser: PGK

Join us for the Christmas Lecture "Prehistoric humankind adapted to changing sea-levels, so why can't we?" by Salomon Kroonenberg followed by the Christmas buffet dinner and party at Luden.

Program: 20th December 2017

17:00 - 18:00: Social hour (at KIVI)
18:00 - 19:00: Christmas lecture Salomon Kroonenberg
19:00 - 23:00: Christmas Buffet Dinner (at Luden).

KIVI, Prinsessegracht 23, 2514 AP Den Haag
Luden, Plein 6-7, 2511 CR Den Haag

Please note that this is a paid event. If you wish to attend the buffet dinner at Luden the cost, including dinner and drinks is EUR15. For registration follow this link.

Prehistoric humankind adapted to changing sea-levels, so why can't we?
Salomon Kroonenberg

About 120,000 years ago, the surface of the sea was six metres above where it is now. When Neanderthal people on the Channel island of Jersey discovered that the source of flint for their stone implements became flooded, they turned to quartz, and when sea level dropped again they returned to flint, because it was better raw material.

The staple food of South African Homo sapiens during the Eemian highstand was black mussels, a species that lives clinging to the rocks in the surf. When sea level dropped and the rocks fell dry, they changed to white mussels, a species that lives in the beach sand under the waterline. If our ancestors over 100,000 years ago could adapt their staple food and mineral resources to changing sea levels, why wouldn't we be able to do so?

During the coldest part of the last Ice Age, 20,000 years ago, people lived on the dry bottom of the North Sea. When sea level started to rise in the Late Pleistocene and Holocene, they adapted by steadfastly moving their dwellings landwards - probably except those living on Doggerland, which might have drowned indeed.

Over the last six thousand years, sea level has been relatively stable, and global tide gauges do not show any acceleration in sea level rise since the end of the 19th century up to the present day: global sea-level rises at ~20 cm per century. Alpine, Alaskan and Arctic glaciers are still longer than they were in Roman and Mediaeval times, showing that their present retreat is still within the range of natural processes. There is nothing "unprecedented" in sea-level rise so far. Considering how inventive our ancestors were at adapting to sea-level changes with the paltry means at their disposal, we should not worry about our ability to do so in the future.

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Wednesday 6 December 2017  18:30

PGK/AAPG YP Allard Martinius (Statoil)

Click here to go to the YP Pages for full instructions for registering and to read the abstract.

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Wednesday 22 November 2017  17:00 - 19:00

PGK Satellite Event - Amsterdam: How well do we predict depth? Guido Hoetz, EBN; and From Seismic to Rocks Stephane Gesbert, Shell

Program: 17:00 - 18:00: drinks at Symphonies Bar (Ground floor Symphony offices)
18:00 - 19:00: Lectures by Guido Hoetz and Stephane Gesbert
19:00 - onwards: drinks nearby

How well do we predict depth?
Observations from systematic depth conversion reviews and the impact on the drilling portfolio.

Presented by Guido Hoetz, EBN.

Abstract
Systematic well reviews are essential for improving on future drilling performance. The accuracy of depth prognosis results has being analyzed in detail by EBN using an extensive dataset; 253 recently drilled petroleum wells in the Netherlands. The outcome reflects uncertainties in seismic interpretation and -more importantly- velocity models. The data indicates that the predicted depth at reservoir level shows an uncertainty of 1.2% (1 sigma). Also a clear bias towards predicting too shallow is evident from the dataset. A possible explanation based on the mechanism of selection bias is being presented.

From Seismic to Rocks - seismic interpretation advances in the last 10 years
Presented by Stephane Gesbert, Exploration Technologies Shell Global Solutions International B.V.

Abstract
In the past 10 years, the E&P industry has developed novel Seismic Interpretation technologies to get "more geology out of seismic data." At Shell, the development effort was originally driven by the need to robustly identify and de-risk stratigraphic traps in seismic data, but turned out to have broader appeal and impact. A central articulation of this capability is (1) the rapid interpretation of an arbitrary number of wall-to-wall seismic horizon. In turn, this dense stack of horizons enables (2) seismic attribute mapping at all stratigraphic levels. Finally, the classic offering of seismic attributes has been augmented with (3) novel attributes to characterize and visualize seismic stratigraphy to an unprecedented level of detail.
In this presentation, we will review these key elements of modern 3D Seismic Interpretation, illustrate them with recent case studies, discuss current challenges and the road ahead.

Location

Vermilion Amsterdam
Symphony Offices, Gustav Mahlerplein 11-13
1082 MT
Amsterdam
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Wednesday 15 November 2017  17:00 - 19:00

PGK Lecture: Gerhard Diephuis – There is more in and about salt than meets an oilman’s eye

Abstract

Magnesium rich minerals are being exploited by NedMag in the North of The Netherlands, around the town of Veendam. These salts have been discovered during appraisal and development of giant Slochteren gasfield. A considerable research effort has been made to elucidate parameters that determine deposition of such high-soluble evaporites. About two years ago, seismic inversion has been applied on the 3D dataset, owned and imaged by NAM. The interpretation and some rock physics modelling led to much improved insight into the possible occurrences and internal geometry of Bischofite-rich sequences. Uncertainties will be discussed prior to conclusions.

NAM is acknowledged for the seismic datasets, NedMag for its cheerful support and RWTH
(Aachen) for its effective and pleasant cooperation.

Location

KIVI
Prinsessegracht 23
2514 AP
Den Haag
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Wednesday 18 October 2017  17:00 - 19:00

PGK Lecture: Edward van Riessen – How to make oil price forecasts?

In 2014 several people in the hydrocarbon business told me the oil price would never again drop below 100$/bbl. Some of them now have to live with unprofitable projects because of this belief. The reasons why I did not agree with them at the time generally still apply. They will form the core of this lecture.

Oil price forecasts are used by oil and fuel traders, airlines and other energy related industries, but the E&P Industry is special, since it requires long term forecasts for project economic evaluations. Let us first review the past, to understand the reasons for oil price fluctuations. From the oil price record we can learn that the price is cyclic, with 5-10 year cycles. Changes are driven by world economic up- or downturns, political events (e.g. the start of the OPEC in 1973) and wars. Especially wars that affected the Middle East and temporary supply restrictions dictated by OPEC caused sudden large price increases. Emotional behavior of traders tends to amplify the change. There have not been shortages of global oil reserves, but the fear of running out of oil has driven the price up at several occasions (e.g. Club of Rome, "Limits to Growth" 1972: peak oil scenario). With the present consumption of 90M bbl. / day, the global reserves will last some 60 years. New plays, enhanced recoveries and efforts to conserve energy will increase the time reserves will last. Apart from the mentioned triggers for change, supply and demand have dictated the price over time. There is a balancing system: when the price drops, E&P companies will limit investments in order to maintain a profit. Global rig count is a good measure for E&P activities: it dropped in 2015 from 3500 to 1500. As production of oilfields declines with time, the global production capacity will hence decline as well at a rate of 2-3%/year, without additional drilling and development activity. This is currently happening. After a few years of excess production, supply and demand are now about in balance, but production capacity is likely to decline further. As soon as the excess stocks, currently estimated at 1 B bbl., have been depleted, the price will go up again.

Having analyzed what is likely to happen in the short term, we need to have a look at the longer term future: the next 10-30 years. Extrapolating past growth, global demand for oil is likely to increase with almost 1% per year. However, will other factors influence the demand such that we will see a peak demand scenario? Some of these factors are: 1. The declining share of oil used for power generation. 2. The increasing application of renewables for power generation. 3. The change from fuel engines to electric engines for cars. 4. The efforts to reduce CO2 emissions. 5. The stabilizing political situation in Iran, Iraq and Libya, allows an increase of oil production from these countries, and hence global supply. An attempt will be made to illustrate how one can analyze and use this information to make long term oil price scenarios.

Location

KIVI
Prinsessegracht 23
2514 AP
Den Haag
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Wednesday 4 October 2017  18:30 - Wednesday 4 October 2017  

PGK/AAPG YP Wiekert Visser From specialist to generalist

The Young Professionals section of the PGK-AAPG is pleased to announce our next event for petroleum geology students and young professionals: Wiekert Visser (Independent geoscientist, former professor at GUtech Oman and former Shell) will be sharing his experiences in his talk titled "From specialist to generalist", in combination with examples of beautiful geology from Oman.

Please see the YP pages for the abstract:

We invite you to join us for the lecture at the Shell offices in The Hague, followed by drinks (first few are on us!) in the Sherlock Holmes pub, a short walk from the lecture venue.

Note that this event is free, but to access the venue, you need to pre-register by confirming your attendance here or via an email to YP@PGKNET.NL. You will also need to bring your ID.

Location

Shell HQ
Carel van Bylandtlaan 30
The Hague
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Wednesday 20 September 2017  17:00 - 19:00

September Lecture: L12/L15 Tight Gas Re-development with Integrated Reservoir Modeling and Hydraulic Fracturing

Lecturer: Peter-Jan Weijermans (Engie)

Abstract

The L12/L15 area is located in the Dutch sector of the Southern North Sea, some 5-10 km from the coastline of the Wadden Islands. Exploration in the 1970s led to the discovery of five small, near-tight (permeability ~1 mD) gas accumulations in a Rotliegend sandstone reservoir, located at a depth of ~3000m. Two of the fields were developed in the 1990s with 5 production wells drilled from a central 9-slot processing platform. The three remaining discoveries, all within drilling reach of the platform, were considered too small, marginal and risky to develop. In 2009, it was decided to fully re-assess the area. This resulted in successful development of two of the undeveloped discoveries in the past six years. Both fields have been drilled with a single long-reach well (>4 km step-out), stimulated with a massive hydraulic fracture from a stimulation vessel. Similar development of the third accumulation is being prepared. A regional diagenesis study was carried out to better understand the distribution of reservoir properties within the Rotliegend in the L12/L15 area.

An integrated approach was key to the success of the developments. For both fields, detailed static and dynamic reservoir modeling was performed to select the optimum well location and estimate potential recovery. Optimising the stimulation treatments involved hydraulic fracture modeling and defining a suitable completion, perforation and clean-up strategy. Extensive post-job analysis of the hydraulic fracture treatments was performed, integrating core data, wireline log data, fracture treatment data, welltest data and production data. Results of the analysis clearly show the value of hydraulic fracturing in these marginal near-tight gas fields.

The first well showed a post-frac well performance which exceeded expectations, while in the second well the fracture performance was below expectation after initial clean-up, although well productivity improved during the first weeks of production, which was attributed to continued clean-up of the formation from frac fluids. One of the fields discussed in the underlying paper illustrates the typical challenges associated with compartmentalised reservoirs in the Rotliegend play in the Southern North Sea. This field has a Northern compartment which is depleted from an initial pressure of 340 bar to a pressure of less than 100 bar after more than 15 years of production. The Southern compartment of the field was known to form a separate accumulation (within the same structural closure) with a deeper GWC and different gas composition compared to the Northern compartment, based on data from an appraisal well drilled in 1982. The new development well targeting this field was drilled in a compartment located between the Northern and Southern compartment, with an unknown GWC. The well found the same (deep) GWC and gas composition as the 1982 appraisal well in the South, but nevertheless found the reservoir to be depleted by up to 50 bar which is attributed to direct communication with the Northern compartment. The case illustrates the complexities involved in compartmentalisation over geologic vs. production times.

Location

KIVI
Prinsessegracht 23
2514 AP
Den Haag
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Monday 19 June 2017  17:00 - 22:00

SPE-PGK Summer BBQ 2017 - Taking the Lead in the Energy Transition!

Re-purposing of existing petroleum industry infrastructure and know-how
Speakers: Rene Peters (TNO) and Michiel Ottevanger (Vermilion)

Entrance fees:

PGK / SPE Members EUR 40;
Non-members EUR 60;
Students: EUR 25;

Please Click Here to register.
Registration is open until Friday 09 June 12:00

Please note that 150 seats are available and that payment at the door is not possible due to logistics.

Programme:
Social Hour 17:00; Lecture 18:00; BBQ at the beach 19:30-22:00

Gas to Geothermal, maximizing value for both 'Gas' and 'Green' in Vermilion's onshore Middenmeer field.
By Michiel Ottevanger (Vermillion)

Abstract:
The end of gas field life, high geological risk exploration targets and a call for the renewable energy transition. What will be the role of the onshore E&P industry in the future Dutch Energy mix and how can Vermilion play a leading role in the transition to a lower carbon dioxide economy? The Dutch government had a Natural Gas revenue of EUR2.4 billion in 2016, a decline of 85% compared to 2013 and the lowest since 1975. On the other hand the governmental investments in the renewable energy transition should be around 200 billion euros, according to 90 Dutch professors. Dutch natural gas, and its related revenues, could be the transition fuel towards a renewable energy future. Innovative ideas, using existing infrastructure and joining forces between E&P industry and the Renewable Energy industry could lead to effective and efficient production of both natural gas and renewable energy. Vermilion is exploring its role in the energy transition, while remaining a healthy E&P business. One of its projects is in the province of North-Holland, where the onshore Middenmeer gas field reached its end of field life. Only 5 kilometers further East, one of the largest greenhouse areas of Europe is being developed, with a demand for heat. A perfect chance to give the Middenmeer wells a second life to provide the greenhouses with geothermal energy and maximize the recovery factor of the Middenmeer field.

About the presenter:
Michiel studied Petroleum Geology and Geophysics at the University of Utrecht and did his pre-master in Business Management at the UvA. He graduated in 2016 with Shell, focussing on exploration in the German and Danish offshore. After his graduation he joined Vermilion Energy as a Junior Commercial Advisor, where he is responsible for Joint Ventures, Business Development and Vermilion Energy Netherlands' role in the Renewable Energy transition. He is passionate about the synergy opportunities between 'natural gas' and 'green' and happy to share his story with us

Gas meets Wind, and how to repurpose the oil and gas infrastructure to create a stable and reliable Northsea Powerhouse
By Rene Peters (TNO)

Abstract:
Oil and Gas production from the Dutch offshore sector is rapidly declining under current market conditions and political environment. Independently, offshore wind is rapidly developed to realize the Dutch growth ambitions on sustainable energy until 2023. While gas has been a reliable, affordable and stable source of energy, income and employment for the Netherlands for decades, renewable sources bring along many challenges related to grid stability, capital costs and public investments. Instead of considering these two developments as independent and not connected, there can be a large benefit of considering North Sea Energy as an integrated system, where existing infrastructure can be repurposed for energy transport, conversion and storage, and offshore wind development can be accelerated more cost efficiently. Can the lifetime of existing oil and gas assets be extended while accelerating the transition to an emission free energy production from the North Sea?

About the presenter:
Rene Peters is currently Director Gas Technology at TNO (www.tno.nl/energy) in Delft.
Rene is responsible for technology development in the area of gas technology, including LNG, Gas Transport and Storage, Unconventional Gas, Exploration and Biogas. He is leading the Upstream Gas Innovation Program within the Top consortia for Knowledge and Innovation - Gas, commissioned by the Ministry of Economic Affairs. He has a PhD in Fluid Dynamics from the Eindhoven University of Eindhoven. He started his career in Shell Research from 1993 - 1998, and moved to TNO where he had various technical and managerial positions in the area of Oil and Gas technology. He also acts as a chairman of the European Forum for Reciprocating Compressors (www.recip.org) and is the chairman of the EERA Shale Gas Initiative.

Location

Oscars
Gevers Deynootweg 205
2586 HZ
Den Haag
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